The tin market is in a rebalancing phase between "supply expectation adjustments" and "weak demand reality" [SMM Tin Market Brief].

Daily Commentary on SHFE Tin Futures Most-Traded Contract, March 18, 2025 The most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2504) fluctuated at low levels today. It opened lower in the morning at 281,800 yuan/mt, with the intraday price center gradually moving downward, and finally closed at 280,030 yuan/mt, down 1.15% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The intraday price range was 280,030-283,000 yuan/mt. Open interest continued to decline, with significant capital outflows indicating an intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Indonesia's Production Increase Plan: Indonesia's state-owned tin mining company plans to increase ore production to 21,500 mt in 2025, but uncertainties remain regarding policy implementation and export quotas. Domestic Inventory Visibility: The pressure of inventory buildup in domestic tin ingot social inventories has become evident. Capital Withdrawal Intensifies Volatility: Open interest in the most-traded contract has been declining continuously, with some bulls taking profits and exiting the market, leading to cautious market sentiment. Today, the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract was under dual pressure from reduced supply disruptions and weak demand, with prices fluctuating downward. The market is currently in a rebalancing phase between "supply expectation adjustments" and "weak demand reality," and a weak fluctuating trend may persist in the short term. Moving forward, attention should focus on the progress of the resumption of production at the Bisie mine in the DRC, policy developments in Indonesia, and inventory changes at the LME, while remaining alert to the impact of macro policy shifts on market sentiment.